Posted Thu Sep 02 12:00AM
Market Statistics for Santa Clara County 7/1/08-7/1/2010 by Chris Trapani
Here are some highlights to pay particular attention to as you review the data/graphs through July of 2010:
1. Median Price- Despite some recent negative news about the slide in the number of home sales for July, the Median Price increased in SCC in July to $562,000 (highest point over past two years since August of 2008/$570,000) from $550,000 in the prior month (which is $52,000 than July one year ago). The SCC Median reached its low point in March of 2009 at $415,000- so we have experienced an trough to date Median price increase of approximately 36%. As we predicted over the last few months of 2009 and beginning of 2010, we experienced a higher rate of upper end sales in Santa Clara County (particularly between 2-5+ million) during most of the first six months of 2010. As a significant number of these “upper end” properties close escrow in the first half of 2010, the median price in SCC climbed well into the $550,000 range. We did experience a slight slowdown over the summer, however, activity has started to move back into the $1.5-3m price ranges over the past two weeks and I anticipate a decent second half with good sales activity across the board.
2. Supply&Demand (Units)- We continue to see a significant distinction as we compare July 2008 with 2010 in the following categories; For Sale (supply/inventory), Under Contract (pending sales) and Sold (closed escrows). To illustrate when we compare July 08 with the same month in 2010 we see the following- For Sale properties/supply continues to remain significantly: down 43.6%. The number of under contract properties (pending sales) continues to soar- up 46% and the sold/closed escrows are up an impressive 31.9%. The pattern and direction of this market for the past 12 months continues to be the same story; declining overall supply/inventory, increasing new sales and closed escrows.
3. Month’s Supply of Inventory & Days on Market- The overall Months Supply of Inventory (months of inventory available based on the total existing supply divided by the rate of sales) remains near all-time low levels at 3 months supply at month end (which is down from 3.2 months supply in June 2010). This is down from a 2 year peak of 14.2 months in January of 08. NAR Months Supply of Inventory came in at 3.7 months for July (SCC continues to lead the national figures) Days on market has averaged between 45 and 60 days for the past 7-8 months, and has increased slightly over the past three months from 55 to 60 days .
4. Sales Absorption- The Absorption metrics are quite compelling with the comparison of July 2008 vs July 2010 with under contract properties up an incredible 145.3% and closed/sold escrows up 123%. 22.1% of the active properties/listings were under contract as of July 30, 2010, up from a final figure of 21.1 percent in June of 2010.
Our area is leading the way for the US in the economic recovery. California is leading the nation per most economists and Northern California, in particular Silicon Valley/Bay Area, is leading Southern California. We are fortunate to be at the pulse of real estate sales activity. As I reported earlier, the market did take a slight pause over the summer as some of the higher end sales activity cooled slightly from its first half pace. However, based on new sales activity over the past week or two, indications are that there are buyers in the upper end and properties in the $2-3m+ range will continue to sell if they are desirable and priced appropriately. Remember, in 2009 we had a very slow start and ended the year with tremendous activity as government stimulus brought many buyers out into the market (December of 2009 was the biggest closing month of the year last year). In 2010, we have had a significant sales volume increase in comparison to (much due to the increased median/higher priced home sales coming back to life) the first half of 2009, while I expect the second half of this year to be respectable, I don’t anticipate the rush/push of year end activity we experienced in 2009. 2010 will end up being a tremendous year for Sereno Group as an organization and the beginning of a turning point in a positive direction for the real estate market overall.
As a company, Sereno Group remains significantly up in sales volume (65%+) this YTD as compared to the same period in 2009. Most of the market and leading peer companies are up between 15-20% this year to date as compared to last year which is a strong indication for overall improving market conditions. We continue to work through the most balanced, healthy and active residential real estate market we have seen in over 2-3 years.
Thank you and have a great week.
Sincerely,
Chris
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